iSeeCars’ Fatality Rate Claim Falls Apart—Here’s the Real Story
🚫 The iSeeCars Claim
The claim that Tesla has the highest fatality rates among car brands stems from an iSeeCars study, widely echoed by outlets like Road & Track, Rolling Stone, Economic Times, and Spectrum News. iSeeCars reported the Tesla Model Y at 10.6 fatalities per billion vehicle miles, the Model S at 5.8, and Tesla overall at 5.6, alleging it tops all brands. However, the real data tells a different story.
📊 Model Y: Not 10.6, Closer to 2.85
iSeeCars claims it used NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for 2018–2022 vehicles. The Model Y launched in 2020, so only 2020–2022 applies. I downloaded the official FARS data (NHTSA data download by year) & (NHTSA FARS manual), filtered vehicle.csv for “Model Y” with DEATHS > 0, and found:
- 2020: 0 deaths
- 2021: 7 deaths
- 2022: 13 deaths
- Total: 20 deaths
Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, stated U.S. Model Y miles exceeded 7 billion by end-2022 (X post). Using a conservative 7 billion:
- 20 deaths ÷ 7 billion miles = ~2.85 fatalities per billion miles
This aligns closely with iSeeCars’ reported U.S. average of 2.8, not the 10.6 they claimed for the Model Y.
📈 Actual U.S. Fatality Rates
However, the actual U.S. vehicle fatality rate in 2022 was significantly higher than iSeeCars’ reported 2.8 per billion miles amount:
- Overall U.S. vehicle fatality rate: 13.3 per billion miles, according to IIHS & NHTSA. This figure includes all motor vehicles and is partially inflated by high-risk categories like motorcycles.
- Passenger vehicle occupant fatality rate: 9 per billion miles, per FHWA. This excludes motorcycles and more accurately represents typical car safety.
- By comparison, the Model Y’s estimated 2.85 fatalities per billion miles is significantly lower than both figures, reinforcing its strong safety record.
💥 Model Y Fatalities: Crash Factors, Not Car Safety
Of the 20 Model Y fatalities, 16 involved external factors unrelated to the vehicle’s safety design:
- DUI or buzzed drivers
- Head-on collisions (traffic, trees, or walls)
- Speeding
- No seatbelts worn
These are driver or situational issues — not flaws in the Model Y’s engineering.
🚗 Model 3: ~2.45, Ignored by iSeeCars
iSeeCars didn’t mention the Model 3, released in 2017. FARS data for 2018–2022:
- 2018: 1 death
- 2019: 0 deaths
- 2020: 4 deaths
- 2021: 20 deaths
- 2022: 23 deaths
- Total: 48 deaths
Moravy notes U.S. Model 3 miles exceeded 19 billion by end of 2022:
- 48 deaths ÷ 19 billion miles = ~2.45 fatalities per billion miles
🧠 Model S: Below 5.8
Model S data is trickier — it launched in 2012, but iSeeCars claims they used only 2018–2022 data. We don’t have exact mileage figures for Model S. Tesla’s global fleet hit 40 billion miles by end of 2022. Removing Model Y (7B) and Model 3 (19B) leaves 14B miles for S/X/Roadster, and outside the US mileage. I conservatively estimate 3.85 billion miles for Model S alone in this the time frame (based on ~90,000 deliveries). Fatality sources vary: FARS reports only 3 from 2018–2020, others suggest 13–21 deaths total in the 2018-2022 timeframe. Either way, way below 5.8.
- 21 ÷ 3.85B miles = ~5.5 (includes pre 2018 vehicles, but not miles)
- Likely 2–3 for 2018-2022 vehicles only (in line with Model 3 & Y)
🛡 Tesla’s Safety Ratings
Tesla vehicles consistently earn top safety scores worldwide, contradicting the iSeeCars’ narrative:
- Model 3:
- NHTSA: 5 stars (2018)
- IIHS: Top Safety Pick+ (2022)
- Euro NCAP: Best in Class, 5 stars (2019)
- ANCAP: Top Performer, 5 stars (2019)
- C-IASI (China): Top Rating – Occupant + Active Safety (2021)
- Model Y:
- NHTSA: 5 stars (2020)
- IIHS: Top Safety Pick+ (2024)
- Euro NCAP: Best in Class, 5 stars (2022)
- ANCAP: Top Performer, 5 stars (2022)
- China NCAP: Top Rating – Occupant/Pedestrian/Active (2021)
- Model S:
- NHTSA: 5 stars (2013)
- Euro NCAP: Best in Class, 5 stars (2022)
- ANCAP: 5 stars (2014)
- Model X:
- NHTSA: 5 stars (2017)
- Euro NCAP: Best in Class, 5 stars (2019)
- ANCAP: Top Performer, 5 stars (2020)
- Cybertruck:
- NHTSA: 5 stars — Lowest probability of injury ever in a pickup truck
⚠️ The iSeeCars Flaw: “Made-Up Miles”
iSeeCars, a used-car sales site (not a safety regulator), claims to have “normalized” FARS data using “estimated miles from over 8 million vehicles in 2022.” However, without disclosing its figures, its reported fatality rates (10.6 for Model Y, 5.8 for Model S) contradict NHTSA FARS data and Tesla’s confirmed mileage. Tesla VP Lars Moravy calls their methodology a “bad denominator” because it’s unverifiable and likely inflated for engagement. Their reported U.S. fatality average is also inaccurate—NHTSA and IIHS data places it at approximately 1.33 deaths per 100 million miles—and appears skewed to support their bias against Tesla.
✅ The Truth
- Model Y: ~2.85 fatalities / billion miles
- Model 3: ~2.45 fatalities / billion miles
- Model S: ~2–3 fatalities / billion miles(estimated)
- U.S. Average: >9 fatalities / billion miles
In reality, Tesla vehicles are far safer than claimed and are definitely not among the “most dangerous cars on the road”. Most fatal Tesla fatalities result from poor driver behavior — not vehicle safety. Tesla’s global safety ratings remain unmatched. The iSeeCars study misrepresents data and lacks transparency. Mainstream media amplified it without scrutiny. This was a clickbait driven misfire.
